I only got five of the Top Ten correct in my “fearful” forecast, but the five that I didn’t get were all in my bubbling under list. Sure, it was a broad bubbling under list (there were nine), but then again with a relatively worthy competitive caliber of entries, I had to make my bubbling under list relatively large.
The way this year’s points are distributed is very interesting. First, it seems the majority of the participating countries tend to concentrate their points to nine finalists, and among those nine finalists there are three tiers–a tier that competes for the Top Three, a tier for fourth to sixth place, and a tier that battles for seventh to ninth. Second, the remainder had to scramble for the remaining points, and in general if they have established bloc-mates, they will have the upper hand. Third, thanks to the EBU’s current transparency policy that allows us to see the full rankings (instead of the Top Ten) of the finalists and analyzing the ordinal rankings, many of the low-ranking entries exhibited the “Ryan Dolan Conundrum.“* This conundrum may help ease the concerns one might have over how some entries seemed to fare so dismally. For readers to follow me with the analysis, I’ll be attaching a spreadsheet file containing the table of the raw ordinal totals and the split-vote points ranking.
* Named after the Irish entrant in 2013 that ranked in last place in the final, despite a terrific presentation featuring hunky drummers. When one analyzes the full ordinal rankings, the entry actually ranked middle-of-the-pack–it only had the misfortune of not having enough countries ranking it within the Top 10 that caused it to score low, as the jury and televote actually ranked other entries much lower than this.
Let’s start with the entries that had the misfortune of garnering the dreaded nul points, Austria (the Makemakes) and Germany (Ann-Sophie). Based on the raw ordinal ranking and in the split votes, they weren’t actually ranked last. In the case of Austria, it actually ranked in the upper half of the jury vote in 13th place, but was offset with a dead-last ranking in the televote. Germany was more middle-of the pack ranking 20th in the jury and 25th in the televote. If we based their overall ranking strictly on ordinals, Germany would’ve been 19th and Austria 23rd. The score (or lack thereof) garnered by these entries are not reflective of the caliber of their performances, or the actual raw rankings they actually received.
The ones who actually ranked in the bottom based on raw ordinals? It’s actually France (Lisa Angell) and the United Kingdom (Electro Velvet). But they were spared the ignominy as there were a couple of countries that granted them points–in the case of France, it had Armenia and San Marino, and the UK also had San Marino with Malta and Ireland granting them points. I also need to give them compliments as there are positive things to say about their presentation–I find the visual backdrops used by France visually stunning plus the virtual army of pink-sweatered martial drummers were a nice touch, and the UK had those lighting effects on the duo’s wardrobe and basically a bright and flashy set overall. More about the UK entry–I notice the features of the female singer, Bianca Nicholas, seem to be Asian–I wonder if she is of Filipino descent or other Asian nationality?
Another entry that could be said to also have exhibited the Ryan Dolan Conundrum is Spain (Edurne), but the twist is she actually got a lot of countries ranking her in the Top Ten that I’ll probably define her particular scenario with her name from hereon. I personally loved her presentation, as she brought out a lot of flash with the unveiling of the red robe to a glittering sheer pink bustier evening gown, some dancing, and that hunky backup dancer. Her 21st place ranking does not reflect the fact that she got eight countries giving her points–more than the entries that ranked 13th to 20th above her (with the exception of Slovenia). The only bad thing is that those eight countries only granted her a low amount of points, as most of them were fixated on the Top Nine, and she was unfortunately overtaken by countries that have bloc partners granting their entries higher points even if the rest of Europe wouldn’t grant them any. In fact, if she was ranked based on raw ordinal points, she would’ve actually been 11th overall.
There would always be entries that polarized the jury and the viewing public, and we have six prime examples this year, including Austria, that I have mentioned above. Four of these entries clicked with the voting public but ranked low overall with the juries. I partly expected that to be the case with Poland (Monika Kuczynska) and Armenia (Genealogy). Both those entries suffered from pitch problems that I can understand the low score with the juries–Poland was dead-last with the juries and 15th with the public, and Armenia was 22nd with the juries and 11th with the public.
Two entries that I found surprising that they didn’t win favor with the juries were Serbia (Bojana Stamenov) and Albania (Elhaida Dani). I liked both of these entries and enjoyed their live performances. But Serbia only ranked 24th with the juries and Albania 26th. But fortunately they shored their rankings with the general public, as they were 10th and 9th respectively. It’s interesting that despite the weak jury vote, Bojana still ended up 10th overall–her Balkan allies helped pull her through in this case (with 12 points from Montenegro), but she also got some scattered support elsewhere, like Australia’s 5 points. Interesting note with Elhaida Dani–she changed outfits from her semifinal to her final performance; she ditched the caped gown from her semifinal (which I personally loved).
In stark contrast, winning favor with the juries but not with the general public were Austria and Cyprus (John Karayiannis). At least in the case of John, he still got a big 10 points from Greece and that one point from Slovenia to shore up his fortunes.
Oddly enough traditionally, Greece and Cyprus typically trade douze (12) points with each other but this year they didn’t–they both have one big favorite that trumps them, which was Italy (Il Volo). Cyprus also preferred another entry that it only granted its bloc partner eight points. Anyway, it’s interesting that Greece (Maria Elena Kyriakou) only got votes from three countries (Albania, Armenia, and Cyprus), but she was granted high enough points for her to outscore Spain. Another interesting note is that I noticed it seems Celine Dion is her idol as I hear Celine’s inflections in her singing.
I know Lithuania (Monika Linkyte and Vaidas Baumila) only ranked a middling 18th place, but I’ll still make mention of them as I just love their sunny performance (with an LGBT twist from the backup singers). I do note it’s a tad sloppier than in the semifinals, with some missed cues (especially since they extended the kiss-pause), but I still adore this puppy dog couple.
Another sentimental favorite of mine was Slovenia (Maraaya) whose 14th place standing is respectable, but if you ask me they should’ve taken the place of one of the “Favorite Nine”. I think performing first was what cost them a higher ranking.
I was expecting higher placements for Georgia (Nina Sublatti) and most especially Azerbaijan (Elnur Huseynov), as I thought they would be Top Ten shoo-ins. Instead, they bubbled under at 11th and 12th respectively. In Nina’s case, if she was ranked based on raw ordinals, she could’ve been 10th instead of Serbia. Also, it’s interesting that though Azerbaijan and Armenia loathed each other (they mutually ranked each other’s entries last), they both granted Nina 10 points each (and, well, Mother Russia 12 points). Now, Elnur is a headscratcher as I found no fault with his performance but the ordinal rankings would reflect worse than his actual points ranking–ordinal ranking would have drag him down further to 17th place overall. I thought Europe would dig his type of stuff, but what didn’t connect?
COMING UP: THE TOP NINE